Now we wait to see where Merck opens, on the NYSE, on Monday. My very strong hunch here is that Invokana® will be a perhaps $5 billion franchise by 2016 or so. Some of that will logically come from Merck’s Januvia®/Janumet® franchise.
UPDATE: I should make it plain that my estimates for early uptake of Invokana are perhaps as much as ten times higher than those being bandied about by most of the people whose day job is stock analysis. While there have been safety concerns with other candidates in this class, I think the post-marketing studies are going to vindicate Invokana. In addition to the superior efficacy profile here, the reported “side effect” — of weight loss — makes a pretty compelling uptake case. I think this drug will be called for by name, by the vast majority of Americans with obesity-triggered Type II diabetis. That’s called patient pull-through — and when it occurs, the sales ramp accelerates significantly.
Stay tuned — but here is Larry Huston — writing for Forbes:
. . . .The FDA said today that it had approved canaglifozin (Invokana, Johnson & Johnson), the first of a new class of diabetes drugs known as sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors. Canaglifozin is indicated to improve glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes in conjunction with diet and exercise. The drug has been studied as monotherapy and in combination with other common treatments for type 2 diabetes including metformin, sulfonylurea, pioglitazone, and insulin. . . .
Have a safe and peaceful holiday weekend.