I’d look for a continuing erosion in the rate of revenue growth in the Januvia®/Janumet® franchise — at around $4 billion a year, now the world’s third largest drugmaker’s best-selling franchise. I’d look for currencies to take back at least three per cent of Merck’s non-US sales growth (assuming the company hasn’t entered into new, and very large, hedges here in the third quarter of 2013). I’d expect slightly softer than expected global sales revenue, but in-line EPS, due to expense control, and the recent 8,500 position elimination announcement. And, speaking of that, I’d expect a large (well north of $500 million) one time charge, in Q3 2013 — a number Merck will exclude from its non-GAAP EPS reporting on Monday.
Beyond that, I’d expect to hear about Merck’s updated expected timing — on its latest two candidates to receive “breakthough” status at FDA — including whether the company expects any delays due to the now ended shutdown.
We will live blog anything that is a material surprise — here’s a bit from a press account, overnight:
. . . .Merck. . . is set to post its Q313 quarterly earnings results on Monday, October 28th. Analysts expect Merck & Co to post earnings of $0.88 per share and revenue of $11.19 billion for the quarter. Merck & Co has set its fiscal year 2013 guidance at $3.45 to $3.55 of earnings per share. . . .