Although top-line ENHANCE disappointments were already known by mid-January 2008 (post January 14), the below graph offers a perspective on just how poorly things are going for the Joint Venture’s Cholesterol Franchise, this year — the overall U.S. cholesterol management market is off about 5 percent, from January to August — while Schering’s share is down a whopping 30 percent. [Click image to enlarge.]
And this 30 percent fall-off is occuring in a drug-line that generates about 50 percent of all of Schering-Plough’s profitability. Ouch.
Categories: Uncategorized
Tagged: US market Vytorin Zetia falloff through 8 months in 200
September 22, 2008 · 5 Comments
Although top-line ENHANCE disappointments were already known by mid-January 2008 (post January 14), the below graph offers a perspective on just how poorly things are going for the Joint Venture’s Cholesterol Franchise, this year — the overall U.S. cholesterol management market is off about 5 percent, from January to August — while Schering’s share is down a whopping 30 percent. [Click image to enlarge.]
And this 30 percent fall-off is occuring in a drug-line that generates about 50 percent of all of Schering-Plough’s profitability. Ouch.
Categories: US market Vytorin Zetia falloff through 8 months in 200
. . .Schering filed with the SEC a Form 8-K announcing August IMS data just a few minutes ago.
I have a graphic finished, now — much more, including graphics, shortly, but — note that US market-share is down again, from 11.7 percent in July of 2008. Click it to enlarge:
That is about a 6 point share decline, month to month. And so, exactly as I predicted, Schering continues to lose share, in a shrinking cholesterol management market in the United States, post the July 21, 2008 top-line SEAS trial results announcement.
IMS Monthly Prescription Data:
July 2008 Cholesterol Management Market: 20,292
August 2008 Cholesterol Management Market: 19,666
~~~~~~~~~
July 2008 Merck/Schering-Plough Franchise: 2,376
August 2008 Merck/Schering-Plough Franchise: 2,233
~~~~~~~~~
July 2008 Vytorin: 1,339
August 2008 Vytorin: 1,249
~~~~~~~~~
July 2008 Zetia: 1,038
August 2008 Zetia: 984
~~~~~~~~~
[All data in thousands.]
In another FAQ in the Form 8-K, we learn that Schering has dosed its first Phase III patient in its Hep C boceprivir candidate trials — a full three months after Vertex had dosed its first Phase III teleprevir patient.
Categories: Uncategorized
Tagged: Vytorin Zetia Scrips August 2008 6 percent share declin
. . .Schering filed with the SEC a Form 8-K announcing August IMS data just a few minutes ago.
I have a graphic finished, now — much more, including graphics, shortly, but — note that US market-share is down again, from 11.7 percent in July of 2008. Click it to enlarge:
That is about a 6 point share decline, month to month. And so, exactly as I predicted, Schering continues to lose share, in a shrinking cholesterol management market in the United States, post the July 21, 2008 top-line SEAS trial results announcement.
IMS Monthly Prescription Data:
July 2008 Cholesterol Management Market: 20,292
August 2008 Cholesterol Management Market: 19,666
~~~~~~~~~
July 2008 Merck/Schering-Plough Franchise: 2,376
August 2008 Merck/Schering-Plough Franchise: 2,233
~~~~~~~~~
July 2008 Vytorin: 1,339
August 2008 Vytorin: 1,249
~~~~~~~~~
July 2008 Zetia: 1,038
August 2008 Zetia: 984
~~~~~~~~~
[All data in thousands.]
In another FAQ in the Form 8-K, we learn that Schering has dosed its first Phase III patient in its Hep C boceprivir candidate trials — a full three months after Vertex had dosed its first Phase III teleprevir patient.
Categories: Vytorin Zetia Scrips August 2008 6 percent share declin
Citing the U.S. economic downturn, this morning’s Wall Street Journal is running a longish article on the first negative growth in quarter-over-quarter (an absolute decline, not just a decrease in the prior quarter’s rate of growth) system-wide US prescription drug spending — and, especially hard-hit it seems — are preventative medicines (think Vytorin/Zetia here).
So, I think it safe to assume that the IMS Vytorin/Zetia monthly data for August 2008 (due out at any moment from Kenilworth) will show another overall cholesterol management drug market contraction, vis-a-vis July 2008. The most-salient question to be answered by that data will be — how much share will Schering have lost, in that contracting market. Let’s listen in to the WSJ — but do go read it all, here:
. . . .Americans are already cutting back on health care, a sector once thought to be invulnerable to recession. Spending on everything from doctors’ appointments to preventive tests to prescription drugs is under pressure.
The number of prescriptions filled in the U.S. fell 0.5% in the first quarter and a steeper 1.97% in the second, compared with the same periods in 2007 — the first negative quarters in at least a decade, according to data from market researcher IMS Health. Despite an aging and growing U.S. population, the number of physician office visits also has been declining since the end of 2006. Between July 2007 and 2008, the most recent month for which data are available, visits fell 1.2%, according to IMS.
As consumers cut back, spending on everything from doctors’ appointments to preventive tests to prescription drugs is under pressure. In a survey by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners last month, 22% of 686 consumers said that economy-related woes were causing them to go to the doctor less often. About 11% said they’ve scaled back on prescription drugs to save money. . . .
Should it persist, this will be an ominous trend-line for the longer term health of Americans, and consequently, the longer term cost of providing acute care to these Americans. They are either forced to skip required medication, or follow-up doctors’ visits — due to cost — and that will inexorably lead to more acute problems (read: higher overall expenses).
Categories: Uncategorized
Tagged: WSJ IMS Scrips decline 2008 Q2 v Q1 Vytorin Zetia marke
September 22, 2008 · 3 Comments
Citing the U.S. economic downturn, this morning’s Wall Street Journal is running a longish article on the first negative growth in quarter-over-quarter (an absolute decline, not just a decrease in the prior quarter’s rate of growth) system-wide US prescription drug spending — and, especially hard-hit it seems — are preventative medicines (think Vytorin/Zetia here).
So, I think it safe to assume that the IMS Vytorin/Zetia monthly data for August 2008 (due out at any moment from Kenilworth) will show another overall cholesterol management drug market contraction, vis-a-vis July 2008. The most-salient question to be answered by that data will be — how much share will Schering have lost, in that contracting market. Let’s listen in to the WSJ — but do go read it all, here:
. . . .Americans are already cutting back on health care, a sector once thought to be invulnerable to recession. Spending on everything from doctors’ appointments to preventive tests to prescription drugs is under pressure.
The number of prescriptions filled in the U.S. fell 0.5% in the first quarter and a steeper 1.97% in the second, compared with the same periods in 2007 — the first negative quarters in at least a decade, according to data from market researcher IMS Health. Despite an aging and growing U.S. population, the number of physician office visits also has been declining since the end of 2006. Between July 2007 and 2008, the most recent month for which data are available, visits fell 1.2%, according to IMS.
As consumers cut back, spending on everything from doctors’ appointments to preventive tests to prescription drugs is under pressure. In a survey by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners last month, 22% of 686 consumers said that economy-related woes were causing them to go to the doctor less often. About 11% said they’ve scaled back on prescription drugs to save money. . . .
Should it persist, this will be an ominous trend-line for the longer term health of Americans, and consequently, the longer term cost of providing acute care to these Americans. They are either forced to skip required medication, or follow-up doctors’ visits — due to cost — and that will inexorably lead to more acute problems (read: higher overall expenses).
Categories: WSJ IMS Scrips decline 2008 Q2 v Q1 Vytorin Zetia marke
Vertex has completed the main tranche of its previously-SEC-registered common stock offering, and today announced that the underwriters had exercised a so-called “Green Shoe” (or more technically, “over-allotment“) option — purchasing additional shares, due to excess demand for the securities.
On Wednesday, Vertex will update the world on itself at the UBS Global Life Sciences Conference on Wednesday — a link to that webcast, is here.
From today’s press release:
. . . .the underwriter has exercised in full its option to purchase 1,125,000 shares of common stock at a public offering price of $25.50 per share. The exercise of the option brings the total shares of common stock to be sold by Vertex in the offering to 8,625,000 shares. Vertex expects to receive gross proceeds from the offering, before commissions and expenses, of approximately $220 million.
Goldman, Sachs & Co. is acting as the sole book-runner for the offering. . . .
We should learn much more about the length of the lead of Vertex’s Hep C candidate, Teleprevir, over Schering’s rival Hep C candidate, on the above-webcast. Do tune in.
Categories: Uncategorized
Tagged: Schering Boceprivir Vertex Telaprevir Morgan Stanley Un
